A leadership challenge is brewing in the Liberal Party, and it's a story that's moving fast.
The Battle for Leadership: A Divided Right Faction
Amidst the fallout from the historic split within the Coalition, Andrew Hastie's supporters are taking action. They're making phone calls, rallying support, and discussing a potential leadership challenge against the current Opposition Leader, Sussan Ley. This comes as Ley and her allies dig in, determined to weather the crisis.
A Divided Right: Hastie vs. Taylor
The Right faction of the Liberal Party, which has been split between Hastie and Angus Taylor, is at the heart of these discussions. Groups of Liberal MPs are shifting gears, directly talking about a fresh start. While Ley's colleagues sympathize with her difficult position, the conversations are mostly within the Right faction, with some MPs who voted for Ley now in talks with the Right.
"It's moving. Phone calls are being made, plans are being finalized, and the pieces are coming together," an MP said.
However, no MPs have publicly called for a leadership change yet. Ley's loyalists are hopeful that the anger directed towards David Littleproud, who effectively challenged the Liberals, will deter any move against Ley.
Hastie's Support and the Challenge Ahead
Hastie's supporters are unsure if they have enough backing for a split, but the open talk of a challenge is a sign that one is indeed approaching. One reason for the Hastie camp's silence is out of respect for their conservative colleague, Angus Taylor, who is currently in Europe and expected to return soon.
A supporter of Ley argues that ousting her after the party's unity against Littleproud would be a terrible look. They predict that Hastie and Taylor will back out of any proposed challenge when Parliament resumes in February.
"Any challenge in February will be seen as an attempt to capitalize on the situation, and that won't go down well," they said.
One frontbencher noted that Hastie has more support within the Right faction than Taylor, despite criticism for his stances on immigration and climate change, and accusations of mimicking overseas populists.
Taylor's Camp: Less Organized, Less Explicit
Taylor, who is still in Europe, has been calling colleagues, but his camp is less organized and less explicit about their plans to create a spill compared to Hastie's supporters. Hastie, on the other hand, drew intense anger from his right-wing online base for backing a watered-down version of Labor's hate crimes legislation, which both the far-left and libertarian right opposed as a curb on free speech.
However, some moderate MPs admire Hastie's ability to compromise in the national interest.
Hastie is backed by a core group, including younger backbenchers Ben Small, Garth Hamilton, and Henry Pike. Influential frontbenchers Jonno Duniam and Michaelia Cash are also likely to support Hastie over Taylor.
The Hurdles for Hastie's Backers
Hastie's backers face the challenge of avoiding the impression that they are toppling Ley to bring back the Coalition with Littleproud's party. Ley, confident of staying in her job, has led the party through a difficult summer, holding the Labor Party accountable and standing firm every day.
She has demonstrated her ability to stare down dissent and face the media when her leadership is under pressure. Her campaign for a federal royal commission into antisemitism and the Bondi massacre hurt the Prime Minister in the polls, but the issue backfired after the party split over Bondi laws this week.
The Future: A Potential Reconciliation?
As Ley works to put together a Liberal-only shadow cabinet, which could promote Jane Hume, and potentially test Hastie's loyalty with a job offer, senior Liberals are desperately trying to mend the Coalition.
While Littleproud has stated that such conversations do not involve him and will go nowhere, former Nationals leader Michael McCormack believes the parties need to reunite. He cited the example of Robert Menzies' Liberals winning seven straight elections after Labor split in the 1950s.
"We can't continue separate for weeks or months," McCormack said.
Many Nationals MPs are dissatisfied with Littleproud, but no leadership challenge is imminent. Littleproud's tone on Friday was less aggressive than the day before, and Ley refrained from personally attacking him, perhaps indicating a potential reconciliation.
Albanese, the opposition leader, warned that any replacement for Ley would carry political baggage.
"Sussan Ley has been undermined from day one, and the alternative leaders are worse," he said.
The situation is fluid, and as one senior MP supporting Hastie said, "I'm not sure if this even holds until February when we're back in parliament."
So, what do you think? Will Hastie's supporters succeed in their leadership challenge? Or will Ley manage to hold on to her position? And what does this mean for the future of the Liberal Party and the Coalition? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below!
