The ongoing protests in Iran have sparked concern among its leaders, with President Donald Trump threatening intervention if the government's crackdown persists. The protests, ignited by economic grievances among shopkeepers in Tehran, have spread to remote cities, with protesters chanting against the ruling clerics. This has raised questions about the country's leaders' popularity and support.
Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, accused Israel and the U.S. of instigating the protests, though he provided no evidence. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf suggested that Trump's intervention threat makes U.S. bases in the region legitimate targets. Trump's Truth Social post threatened to rescue peaceful protesters if Iran violently suppresses them.
Iranian officials attempted to project unity with citizens during the Israeli-U.S. war in June, which killed over 1,000 people and damaged nuclear facilities. However, tensions with the U.S. are rising again, and Iran's unity appears fragile. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, notes that Iranians felt compelled to unite during the war but didn't abandon their contentious feelings towards the regime.
Iran's economy was already struggling with sanctions, inflation, and currency devaluation before the war. A water and energy crisis last year exacerbated the situation. President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged the government's responsibility for the people's dissatisfaction and suggested addressing protesters' concerns. However, the Hengaw Organization for Human Rights reported security forces killing two protesters, indicating the limits of Pezeshkian's authority.
Analysts suggest that the outcome of the protests depends on the will of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump's intervention threats remain uncertain, with concerns that they might embolden protesters or lead to a harsh government response, similar to past protests in 2022 and 2023 that resulted in hundreds of deaths and arrests.
