The gravest crisis currently facing Iran is not just a series of environmental shocks—it’s a widening ecological catastrophe that threatens water security, air quality, and the nation’s economic stability. As drought intensifies and water resources dwindle, social and political tensions quietly rise, leaving many to wonder whether public unrest could emerge against the regime.
Professor Adi Wolfson |
Recent weeks have underscored that climate disruption is no distant threat; it is a present reality. Extreme weather—from unexpected heatwaves to severe floods—has become part of everyday life, with Iran standing out as a stark example of how climate change reshapes livelihoods, energy needs, and public health.
Across the globe, shifting climate patterns are altering daily life, yet Iran’s experience is particularly severe. Worsening drought, frequent power and water outages, and dangerous levels of air pollution have drawn international attention and raised questions about the country’s resilience.
A man seeks relief from heat by cooling off with water in Tehran during a heatwave that has affected much of the country. (Photo: AFP)
Iran’s accelerating ecological crisis results from a combination of natural climate fluctuations and long-standing mismanagement of infrastructure and resources. The country’s average temperatures are rising at about twice the global rate, with a 2°C increase since the 1950s.
This warming has drastically altered rainfall patterns: over the last two decades, precipitation declined by roughly 20%. In the past two years, the drop reached 40%, and since the start of the 2025 rainy season in late September, rainfall has plummeted by an extraordinary 90%. At the same time, rising temperatures have accelerated evaporation from natural reservoirs, man-made reservoirs, soil, and vegetation. Years of reckless, and in some cases criminally negligent, water management by authorities have magnified these pressures.
A woman walks by withered almond trees in a drought-stricken region of Iran, where prolonged water shortages have devastated agriculture. (Photo: Solmaz Daryani/Shutterstock)
Iran’s population has grown by about 30% in the last twenty years, accompanied by rapid urbanization and industrial expansion that have driven up water demand. The agricultural sector—heavily subsidized—has encouraged inefficient water usage. As a result, aquifers are being overpumped, surface water sources are shrinking, water quality is deteriorating, and ecosystems are collapsing.
The depletion of major water reserves has reached critical levels, with reservoirs that supply homes, factories, and farms running dry. Water cuts have become routine, disrupting daily life, reducing agricultural yields, and triggering higher food imports and prices. For Iran’s already vulnerable economy, the consequences have been devastating.
The water crisis has also sparked an energy crisis. Hydroelectric power generation has fallen as dams dry up, while cooling systems at fossil-fuel plants face stress. Frequent, prolonged electricity blackouts hinder everyday life and disrupt industries, including oil production and refining. Public health pressures grow as illness and mortality rise in connection with the crisis.
Groundwater depletion has caused saltwater intrusion into deeper layers, further salinizing soils and harming plant and animal life. The loss of aquifers has altered soil structures, leading to noticeable land subsidence—measured at as much as 25 centimeters annually in western Tehran.
In turn, these environmental changes have worsened air quality. Dry, compact soil in arid regions becomes a dusty, salty dust—easily carried by windstorms. In recent weeks, these particles have driven some of the world’s most dangerous air pollution levels to plague Iranian cities. In Tehran, already burdened by smog from heavy traffic and petrochemical industries, air quality indices have soared to record highs.
The government has attributed the catastrophe in part to climate change and sanctions, warning that without divine intervention mass evacuations—including from Tehran—could become necessary.
Forecasts reveal that Iran’s ecological emergency is likely to intensify, threatening the economy, food security, and the country’s entire way of life. The growing risk of climate-driven displacement raises a critical question: could this crisis ultimately ignite widespread popular resistance? Time will tell.
Professor Adi Wolfson is the head of the Master’s Program in Green Engineering at Sami Shamoon College of Engineering.
Would you be open to discussing how citizen-led conservation and policy reforms could mitigate these challenges, and what specific steps you think could help prevent a deterioration into broader unrest?
