Tadej Pogačar's shot at finally conquering Milan-San Remo could be hanging by a thread, thanks to his fierce rival Mathieu van der Poel's packed winter racing calendar—talk about a plot twist that has cycling fans on edge!
Updated November 29, 2025, 12:00 PM
Imagine gearing up for one of cycling's most prestigious one-day classics, only to realize your biggest competitor might arrive sharper than ever. That's the precarious spot Slovenian superstar Tadej Pogačar finds himself in after details emerged about Dutch powerhouse Mathieu van der Poel's upcoming cyclocross commitments. For those new to the sport, cyclocross is a thrilling off-road discipline involving short, intense laps on bikes that mix road and mountain elements—think muddy barriers, steep run-ups, and non-stop action that builds incredible endurance.
Van der Poel's team, Alpecin-Deceuninck, dropped the news on Friday, outlining his plan to tackle as many as 13 cyclocross events this winter season. The action could kick off as soon as two weeks from now, potentially at the Namur World Cup. However, the team has left the door open for him to skip that and jump in a week later at the Antwerp World Cup instead. One more event, the Benidorm World Cup on January 18, is still up in the air pending confirmation.
His winter campaign will wrap up at the world championships in Hulst on February 1, where Van der Poel eyes a historic eighth victory, shattering the current record and cementing his legacy in the discipline.
But here's where it gets controversial... how exactly does a bunch of off-road races in the mud and cold threaten Pogačar's spring dreams on the paved roads of Italy?
Plenty, as we'll unpack. Last year's Milan-San Remo—often called La Primavera for its spring timing—saw Van der Poel as the lone warrior who could match Pogačar's explosive attacks on key climbs like the Cipressa and the Poggio. Sure, he got dropped briefly here and there, but the Dutchman always clawed his way back, even launching his own counterattack near the top of the Poggio. In a nail-biting finish, Van der Poel edged out the multi-Tour de France winner in a sprint, while Filippo Ganna from Ineos Grenadiers powered back just in time to grab second.
For beginners, understand this: Milan-San Remo is a grueling 300-kilometer test of endurance along the Italian Riviera, but its profile isn't brutally mountainous. Pogačar's superpower is his climbing prowess—he can drop almost anyone on steep ascents—but the race's gentler hills don't always play to that strength. To win, he needs to be in razor-sharp condition to shake off sprinters and all-rounders like Van der Poel. And this is the part most people miss: Van der Poel seems poised to hit that peak form even harder for the March 21 showdown.
As explored in a fresh Velo analysis, Van der Poel entered last year's edition with 16 race days under his belt—eight from cyclocross and eight from road races. That volume helped him stay race-hardened and responsive. Pogačar, by comparison, had just half that mileage, arriving fresher but perhaps not as battle-tested.
Fast-forward to this year, and Van der Poel's aggressive cyclocross slate of up to 13 outings could supercharge his preparation, putting him miles ahead of last spring's readiness. Toss in some early road races, and he's looking at 20 or more competitive days before San Remo. For context, this kind of high-volume winter training mimics the intensity of a mini off-season boot camp, sharpening reflexes and stamina in ways that translate directly to road classics.
Pogačar, on the other hand, appears set for a more restrained buildup. According to insights from respected Italian journalist Ciro Scognamiglio of La Gazzetta dello Sport, the Slovenian's season opener might be Strade Bianche on March 7—a full two weeks later than his 2025 debut. That shorter ramp-up means even less opportunity to dial in his form through real-race pressure, which could leave him playing catch-up.
Opting for fewer races is a massive risk, especially against a rival who's timing his peaks to perfection. And let's not forget Van der Poel's triple-threat ambitions: he's gunning for San Remo, the Tour of Flanders, and Paris-Roubaix. Pogačar, meanwhile, aims to sustain his edge through to Liège-Bastogne-Liège, juggling a longer calendar that demands masterful energy management. Is this conservative approach genius or a recipe for disappointment? That's the gamble.
Diving into the details of Van der Poel's blueprint, Alpecin-Deceuninck's Friday social media update described it as: "13 races with the World Championships as the big finale!" They added a caveat that it might shrink by a couple of events. "Important note: Namur and Benidorm are still provisional. Mathieu will assess in the coming days if he's ready to race by December 14 (Namur), and Benidorm hinges on how his road prep progresses."
No matter the tweaks, it's a step up from his eight races last season. Breaking it down, the lineup features eight World Cup rounds, three X2O Trofee series events, the Exact Cross on January 2, and that championship showdown on February 1. For newcomers, World Cups are elite international series stops, while X2O Trofee are high-stakes Belgian showdowns that draw massive crowds.
His main cyclocross nemesis, Wout van Aert, hasn't revealed his plans yet, but rumors suggest a lighter schedule with just a handful of crosses. This winter, Thibaut Nys—who crushed the Tábor World Cup last Sunday—might emerge as Van der Poel's toughest foe in the mud.
As for Pogačar and Van der Poel, their paths won't cross until March at the soonest, barring a dramatic overhaul of the Slovenian's calendar to ensure he's firing on all cylinders for San Remo. A recent Velo piece argues he might need such a shake-up to finally bag those elusive cobbles in Roubaix and the glory of La Primavera.
Mathieu van der Poel's cyclocross schedule for the 2025/2026 season:
December 14: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Namur (TBC)
December 20: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Antwerp
December 21: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Koksijde
December 22: X2O Trofee, Hofstade
December 26: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Gavere
December 29: X2O Trofee, Loenhout
January 1: X2O Trofee, Baal
January 2: Exact Cross, Mol
January 4: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Zonhoven
January 18: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Benidorm (TBC)
January 24: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Maasmechelen
January 25: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Hoogerheide
February 1: UCI Cyclo-cross World Championships, Hulst
Also read: Pogačar Needs a Radical Change to Win Roubaix and San Remo
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Now, over to you: Do you think Pogačar's lighter schedule is a smart way to preserve his climbing edge, or is Van der Poel's cross-heavy grind the real key to dominating the classics? Could this rivalry push both to new heights, or might it backfire for one of them? Drop your thoughts in the comments—I'd love to hear if you're Team Pogačar or Team Van der Poel!
